Pakistan has become a country of endless climaxes because it seems that the twists and turns will never end there. Since the Abottabad incident political inconsistency in Pakistan has become a consistent phenomenon. Sometimes it seems to me that Pakistan is still haunted by the spectre of Osama bin Laden. However, it does not mean that before Abottabad incident there had been a persistent peaceful political ambiance in Pakistan. The recent political crisis in Pakistan is evolving centering ‘memogate’ scandal. ‘Memogate’ is a secret memorandum which was allegedly delivered to Admiral Michael Mullen, then the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, requesting US intervention in the event of a military coup against Pakistan's elected government. The memo promised that Pakistan would allow the US input on a revamp of the country's national security set-up, and that it would eliminate Section S of the country's powerful Inter Services Intelligence agency, which allegedly is responsible for the ISI's links with the Taliban. After knowing this secret activity the army got furiated that finally resulted in involving Supreme Court which issued a notice over inaction in graft case of President Asif Ali Zardari, as government faces legal and political challenges.
But the present situation is unprecedented because of several cogent reasons. The most important reason is the existing strained relationship with the US. The US killed Osama Bin Laden by violating Pakistan’s sovereignty. In last November US led Nato strike killed twenty four Pakistani troops in Northern Pakistan which finally resulted to halt Nato supply line to Afghanistan via Pakistan and forced the US to pull out from Shamasi airbase in Kharan, Pakistan. This year January President Obama signed a bill to stop aiding Pakistan as a measure of tit for tat. Another important reason is a better strong position of various democratic institutions like- media, Supreme Court and stronger opposition parties in today’s Pakistan.
The ‘memogate’ scandal may bring a shuffle in Pakistan government. But here I shall not view the scandal to understand the national politics of Pakistan rather will dissect the issue to understand its implication with external dimensions. It may create a very tricky option for the US to make through into Pakistan politics and force Pakistan to come into terms.
It is a very much historically proven truth that the civil-military relation in Pakistan is always at a draggers drawn. But in most of the cases the relationship was influenced or shaped by the external factors. After the Pakistan troops casualties by Nato airstrikes taken places, the official relationship between Pakistan and the US touched a new bellow. But since then, both the government and military are maintaining a clandestine relationship, because respective organization’s existence depends upon Washington’s positive nod. An obedient and controlled Pakistan is also important for the US. To bring stability in Afghanistan and maintaining counterterrorism effort in South Asia and uprooting insurgency from this region, a stable Pakistan is precondition. The US cannot afford to let Pakistan run alone and even, independently. This may risk of making a mess of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons to insurgents. In an updated research, conducted by The Nuclear Threat Initiative, in a project led by former US Senator Sam Nunn and the Economist Intelligence Unit it is found that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are at most risk just after North Korea. A few days back I had the privilege speak with Mr. Ali Riaz, Professor and Chair of department of Political Science, Illinois State University. We had some wonderful sharing regarding the US role in the regional politics of South Asia. Then he told me that a stable Pakistan is important for both the US and India. If Pakistan fails as a state then certainly it will risk nuclear weapons falling in the hand of non-state actors like Al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Tayba or any other terrorist organizations. Terrorists and insurgents from Pakistan will infiltrate into India and Bangladesh through the porous borders.
‘Memogate’ scandal will finally bring one party, either the government or the armed force division, nearer to the US. And then the US will utilize this weak point to enforce Pakistan to bow down to its demand. From this point of view no one can deny the possibilities of orchestration from the US to drive the ‘memogate’ on its own side.
An edited version of this article was published in the Daily Star on 21st January, 2012
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