This year is ending by ushering some remarkable changes, especially, across Middle East and Africa. Besides the inauguration of “Arab Spring”, many occupied Middle Eastern countries started to cut loose from their occupier. The US has called it a day for Iraq by declaring the drawdown of all forces from there. This decision has attracted mixed reactions from different types of experts. Some praised while some scolded Obama’s policy. In the declaration ceremony Mr. Barak Obama said that Iraq had become democratic and had an independent judicial system. This statement has surprised many Iraqis including me from Bangladesh. I wish the Iraqis had all these!
After the US withdrawal of troops from Iraq scholars have produced innumerable articles regarding this issue. Here I shall try to touch those untouched areas of analysis that are very much important. Occupation of Iraq is a continuation of classical norm of western imperialism. Initially western powers occupy a foreign land physically by waging wars. Then the occupier makes an opportune ambiance for their vernacular companies to do business. And finally they leave it by substituting with an obedient leader selecting from the occupied country. In Iraq there was nothing exceptional. Now Nuri al-Maliki is serving the exact purpose. Just after the last US convoy has left Iraq, Prime Minister Maliki issued an open invitation for US firms to help rebuild Iraq Tuesday, as his oil-rich nation closes the door on a nearly nine-year American military presence. Hailing a new stage in the country's history, Maliki declared his war-scarred nation was ready to construct a new economy, one that holds "limitless" opportunities for US firms. In near future Iraq would be transformed into an economically occupied country from physical occupation.
Now let us look into socio-political aspects of Iraq. Since we know that the prominence of religious values in Iraq, none can ignore those components while trying an overhauling process there in. During Saddam, a Sunni by origin, reign it was Shiite group who was exploited, deprived and destroyed with mass killing. Now Maliki, a Shiite, in power looming a similar fate for Sunnis. Now there is already an open rift between Maliki and vice precedent Tareq al-Hashemi, a Sunni by origin. Just days after US forces left the country and on the eve of the national unity government's first anniversary, Iraq's fragile political truce already looked to be unraveling. Authorities have issued a warrant for Vice President to arrest. That sparked fears that Iraq's fragile year-old unity government could fall apart, shortly after the last US soldiers left the country. Fighting between Sunnis and Shii left thousands dead in the tit-for-tat attacks of 2006-2007. Who knows what will happen next! But my assumption is weighing on “two Iraqs solution” as an eminent future of this country.
Now let me end my article with short discussion on strategic matter related with troops pulling out. Analysts have been claiming, since the declaration of Afghanistan drawdown that the US is making a strategic shift from the Middle East to the Asia pacific focusing, mainly, to set off China. After Iraq pull out the speculation has got stronger support. Many Middle East experts are speculating that it will empower Iran to bully in this region. But still the US has five military bases in Middle East and a few of them surround Iran. Moreover, in the era of ICBM and other state-of-the-art technology that the US is possessing, would not allow Iran to destabilize Middle East, if Iran ever wants at all.
At last what I am afraid of to say that Iraq may turn into another breeding ground of insurgency, militancy like Afghanistan, already there is hidden but growing dissents among the Iraqis against the government and the US. The Shiite and Sunni rift may erupt into a civil war which may finally lead to a process destabilization in the whole Middle East. I am not a problem solving expert and I have no panacea to all these problems. Only policy makers can show us way. So let us look forward.
An edited version of this article was published on same date in the Daily Star.
