South China Sea (SCS) dispute has become an epicenter for many reshuffles in strategic thinking and regional politics. This dispute has been continuing to be a dominating factor in defining intra and inter regional relationship between South Asia and South East Asian nations, for couple of months. The US has forwarded its hands of assistance towards the SCS littoral states in opposition to China. India’s involvement with direct governmental presence in that region has added a new dimension. Now it is widely assumed that China’s supremacy, not only as a regional but also as a global power, will be tested with that dispute. Recent move from Washington to establish an air base in North Australia, in the name securing the US’s interest in Pacific region, can be taken as a clear act of provocation against China. The deployment will start in mid-2012, company-size rotations of 200 to 250 Marines near Darwin in Australia’s Northern Territory. The U.S. President Barack Obama has announced an enhanced security agreement with Australia providing up to 2,500 military personnel to be stationed in the country in the coming years. At the same time, in the Philippines, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton signed a declaration reaffirming a longstanding mutual defense treaty between the two countries. China has already questioned the value of Washington's plan to strengthen military cooperation with Australia and updating its defense treaty with the Philippines. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin called for discussions about the boosting of American troop deployment in East Asia, questioning just how cooperation would benefit the international community.
Now let us look back. Just few months ago, US president declared to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan in a gradual process. The timeline for the withdrawal are- 10,000 troops by end-2011, 33,000 by mid-2012 and the bulk of the remaining 70,000 troops at a “steady pace” through 2013-14. And there in Australia it has a plan to increase deployment from 250 in 2011 to 2500 in 2012. In one of my published articles, ‘Afghanistan troops pull out and South China Sea dispute’, I told that there was a invisible link between US decision of pulling out troops from Afghanistan and strategic developments in greater Asia. US strategists are finding it more useful to concentrate elsewhere than Afghanistan. Mark Thompson wrote in ‘Time’ magazine that like a geopolitical seesaw, the U.S. military is tilting its forces away from Europe to the Pacific, where they will serve to calm regional fears about China's growing military might. Beijing has been poking around the South China Sea in recent years. More than $6 trillion in goods ships through the sea annually, and the U.S. and its allies want to ensure its hold on open navigation rather than letting it a Chinese lake. So now it is very much apparent that US’s security paradigm is revolving around ‘China strategy’. In my article I claimed that strategists of the US might find it more important to make strong foothold in South Asia or South East Asia to dissolve China’s prowess in that region and utilizing present turmoil centering the SCS. In the present context we have seen that the US’s decision to establish a new marine base in Northern Australia is a deliberate decision to offset China’s hegemony in the Asia Pacific. This decision has given US an opportunity to explain it in multidimensional ways. Though the Obama administration is proclaiming that the decision is taken for their security purpose but, in fact, at the end, this base would be built with a clear intention against China.
But Chinas strategists did not misinterpret the situations. China knows it very well that though it is a leader in global economy but still lagging much far behind from the US as per as military capability is concerned. The US move to Australia would prompt China to concentrate in the region of Asia Pacific. Probably this time China would try to upgrade its naval power more, than any other military options. Because it is highly assumed that Chinese navy is substandard in comparison to that of the US, Russia or even India. And as per as SCS dispute is concerned naval power is going to be one of the crucial factors. So as a ‘would be supper power’ it is highly expected that China will concentrate in that particular area for upgrading.
An edited version of this article was published in the Daily Star on this day.
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