Bangladesh: Tangled Between ICBMs

A few hours back I have watched a movie The Day After (1983). This film postulates a fictional war between NATO forces and the no more existing Warsaw Pact that rapidly escalates into a full-scale nuclear exchange between the United States and the then Soviet Union. I have seen the filmic presentation that how an ICBM is being launched with nuclear warhead and then detonates in the air or surface of the target area. This movie assisted me to assume what India has actually achieved in their historic day of testing latest edition of ICBM, Agni-5. With this remarkable achievement in the arena of defence technology, India can relish for being an elite member of a very short listed global association of ICBM owner’s. Should we put our hands together for India? From a view point this achievement will attract a huge criticism. What an irony that a country has been spending over five hundred million dollars for developing ICBM for last three decades where as almost half a billion countrymen there in is starving from half a day meal or no food. Last year India spent $46 billion for buying weapons while it spent only $11.5 billion and $6 billion for education and health consecutively. Gandhi would have died if he were alive!

Now let us see this development in the backdrop of whole Asia-Pacific strategic landscape. For last a few months ‘Asia-Pacific- the next pivot’ has become a buzzing line after the US has revisited its global security strategy. Both India and China are bolstering its never decreasing defence spending and so the other East-Asian countries. Regarding China ‘concern’ and to gain an upper hand in Asia-Pacific region it has been essential for India to build such an ICBM which will ensure its credible deterrence capability and credibility as a regional power.
  

Would this achievement refrain India from further advancement in defence technology? Probably not, because this is an unstoppable appetite for establishing supremacy in defence industry. China is still way forward from India as per as India’s defence capability is concerned.  For instance, China’s ICBM ranges 13000 km which is capable of targeting almost every part of the world. This strategic weapon is very much relevant for China because it has global aspiration unlike India. On the other hand India has a limited ambition centering Asia-Pacific presently. Therefore, Agni-5 can serve India’s purpose properly. A large part of Eastern Europe, many major cities of China like Beijing, Shanghai and in the South East Asia- Indonesia’s Jakarta is within the ranges of Agni-5.  This achievement has ensured India’s credibility as a ‘regional power’.
  

How I would take this matter being a neighbor of India? What are the implications for India’s neighboring countries? Will India’s Agni-5 endangers further the national security of those neighboring nations? Does India’s aspiration to be regional power help its neighbors? What surprised me that there was no action or reaction from Bangladesh regarding Agni-5 test. It seems to me that Bangladesh is yet to adopt a culture of foreign policy attitudes and behaviors.  Bangladesh is yet to act as an actor in regional politics. But the geographical position can no way keep Bangladesh indifferent to these developments.  It is now an apparent reality that both India and China are in arms race. Among them India is our neighbor while China is ‘almost- neighbor’ in terms of spatial proximity. Bangladesh locates almost like a buffer state between these two giant states. Any unexpected development between twos will also endanger Bangladesh’s national security. So in no way Bangladesh can desist from taking immediate measures.

There are two options for Bangladesh. One, Bangladesh can build an anti ballistic missile shield to ensure its national security which is a distant reality. Second one, which is more realistic, Bangladesh can establish a regional forum by involving other countries, like Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and so forth, who are surviving under similar insecurities. This forum will speak out against arms race in South Asia. Time has come to raise the issue both regionally and internationally. Bangladesh alone may not be able create a strong impression but this can be possible through a multilateral forum. If this forum can be built then it could work as a good bargaining chip to defuse probable tension between two giants. 

An edited version of this article was published on 11th May, 2012