A few hours back I have watched a movie The Day After (1983). This film postulates a fictional war between NATO forces and the no more existing Warsaw Pact that rapidly escalates into a full-scale nuclear exchange between the United States and the then Soviet Union. I have seen the filmic presentation that how an ICBM is being
launched with nuclear warhead and then detonates in the air or surface of the
target area. This movie assisted me to assume what India has actually achieved
in their historic day of testing latest edition of ICBM, Agni-5. With this
remarkable achievement in the arena of defence technology, India can relish for
being an elite member of a very short listed global association of ICBM owner’s.
Should we put our hands together for India? From a view point this achievement
will attract a huge criticism. What an irony that a country has been spending
over five hundred million dollars for developing ICBM for last three decades
where as almost half a billion countrymen there in is starving from half a day
meal or no food. Last year India spent $46 billion for buying weapons while it
spent only $11.5 billion and $6 billion for education and health consecutively.
Gandhi would have died if he were alive!
Now let us see this development in the backdrop of whole Asia-Pacific
strategic landscape. For last a few months ‘Asia-Pacific- the next pivot’ has
become a buzzing line after the US has revisited its global security strategy.
Both India and China are bolstering its never decreasing defence spending and
so the other East-Asian countries. Regarding China ‘concern’ and to gain an
upper hand in Asia-Pacific region it has been essential for India to build such
an ICBM which will ensure its credible deterrence capability and credibility as
a regional power.
Would this achievement refrain India from further advancement in
defence technology? Probably not, because this is an unstoppable appetite for
establishing supremacy in defence industry. China is still way forward from
India as per as India’s defence capability is concerned. For instance, China’s ICBM ranges 13000 km
which is capable of targeting almost every part of the world. This strategic
weapon is very much relevant for China because it has global aspiration unlike
India. On the other hand India has a limited ambition centering Asia-Pacific
presently. Therefore, Agni-5 can serve India’s purpose properly. A large part
of Eastern Europe, many major cities of China like Beijing, Shanghai and in the
South East Asia- Indonesia’s Jakarta is within the ranges of Agni-5. This achievement has ensured India’s credibility
as a ‘regional power’.
How I would take this matter being a neighbor of India? What are the
implications for India’s neighboring countries? Will India’s Agni-5 endangers
further the national security of those neighboring nations? Does India’s aspiration
to be regional power help its neighbors? What surprised me that there was no
action or reaction from Bangladesh regarding Agni-5 test. It seems to me that Bangladesh
is yet to adopt a culture of foreign policy attitudes and behaviors. Bangladesh is yet to act as an actor in
regional politics. But the geographical position can no way keep Bangladesh
indifferent to these developments. It is
now an apparent reality that both India and China are in arms race. Among them
India is our neighbor while China is ‘almost- neighbor’ in terms of spatial
proximity. Bangladesh locates almost like a buffer state between these two
giant states. Any unexpected development between twos will also endanger
Bangladesh’s national security. So in no way Bangladesh can desist from taking
immediate measures.
There are two options for Bangladesh. One, Bangladesh can build an anti
ballistic missile shield to ensure its national security which is a distant
reality. Second one, which is more realistic, Bangladesh can establish a
regional forum by involving other countries, like Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and so
forth, who are surviving under similar insecurities. This forum will speak out
against arms race in South Asia. Time has come to raise the issue both
regionally and internationally. Bangladesh alone may not be able create a
strong impression but this can be possible through a multilateral forum. If
this forum can be built then it could work as a good bargaining chip to defuse
probable tension between two giants.
An edited version of this article was published on 11th May, 2012
