“India's leadership has the potential to positively shape the future of the Asia-Pacific... and we encourage you not just to look east, but continue to engage and act east as well."
Hillary Rodham Clinton
Secretary of State, USA
US-India Strategic Dialogue, 2oth July, 2011, Chennai, India.
This year, Hillary Clinton made some high remarks regarding India’s leadership in South Asia and beyond during her last India tour. At a strategic dialogue between India and the US, held in Chennai, Hillary made a clear indication that her country wants to see India as a leader within a vast region, ranging from South Asia to Asia pacific including Central Asia. In recent past, some significant developments in South Asia and South East Asian strategic landscapes are now proving that Hillary’s speech has far reaching impacts. Developments in the regional politics include the recent visits of the heads of the governments from Vietnam and Myanmar to India; India’s footprint in, probably, the most sensitive area in the world at this moment- South China Sea (SCS). All these developments placed us in a situation where we get an opportunity to explore the possible unseen links between Hillary’s speech and regional political developments.
Last month, Vietnamese president Trung Tan Sang paid four-day visit to India, aimed at deepening ties between two countries. Six agreements were signed after Sang met Indian premier Manmohan Singh. Among those agreements the most noteworthy of which regards oil and gas exploration by an Indian state owned company, ONGC Vindesh, in waters disputed by Vietnam and China in the SCS. Chinese criticism regarding the Indian exploration plans, already voiced last August this year, when Indian external minister SM Krishna visited Hanoi and announced that India would go ahead with operations notwithstanding China’s opposition. It is relevant here to mention that Vietnam and India enjoy mutual strategic interests as per as common threat perception from China is concerned.
In the same month, Myanmar’s president, retired General Thien Sien, also visited New Delhi for four days in a bid to increase trade and cooperation, especially in energy sector. Since Myanmar has important energy resources in abundance, both India and China have been eyeing to buy those to meet their growing domestic energy demands. In the immediate pasts Myanmar’s energy resources had been under China’s sole occupation. Presuming Myanmar’s strategic importances, India started to develop relationship with that authoritarian country in the first half of 1990s. Policy towards Myanmar was initiated under India’s broader policy towards South East Asia- “Look East Policy”. Though India is the largest democracy in the world, but it doesn’t hesitate to establish relationship with the world’s most repressive-captive-despotic state, Myanmar. India’s this contradictory stance is termed as ‘U-turn from idealism to realism’. Relations between Myanmar and India have been growing in the past few years. Indian President APJ Abdul Kalam visited Myanmar in 2006 and two years later, Vice-President Shri M.Hamid Ansari paid an official visit to the country in 2009. Reciprocally, Myanmar's former leader Senior-General Than Shwe, and many high officials visited India between 2008 and 2010. Myanmar-India bilateral trade reached 1.071 billion U.S. dollars in 2010-11 and India stood as Myanmar's fourth largest trading partner after Thailand, Singapore and China, according to official statistics. This year India promised Myanmar that it would lend $500 million in credit for a variety of infrastructure projects. Moreover, both countries discussed border security issues, a major concern for New Delhi, as insurgents groups from its northeast have set up camps along the frontier with Myanmar.
The recent developments can be analyzed in two dichotomized perspectives. One perspective claims that those regional developments mainly taking place because of concerted effort from India and USA. But another point of view claims that South East Asian states are anchoring on Indian shore because they are tormented by China’s belligerent policies. If we enter deeper into those incidences then we will see that there is a ‘balancing game’ working in whole regional politics. Focusing primarily on the economic ties in the beginning, India and its South East Asian counterparts have increasingly expended the scope of cooperation to include other issues, such as defense and security. For South Asian states, an eastward looking India provides an array of opportunities, and is especially useful for balancing Chinese influence in the political, economic and defense realm in the region. For example- in the aspect of Myanmar, the seesaw is characterizing Myanmar's relations with its principal ally, China. During Thein Sein's visit to Beijing in May, the two countries decided to proclaim "a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership". Recently, however, Myanmar's decision to suspend the construction of the Myistone dam in the northern Kachin state, a project meant to supply electricity to China which was being executed by a Chinese corporation with massive Chinese investment, has caused substantial tensions. For Vietnam, she is upset with China’s illegal claims in SCS. Now these states are optioning India to replace China, as much as possible.
Another thing- the existing bonhomie relationship between two global powers, US and India, is instigating South East Asian states to strengthen more their existing relationship with India. So it is very much apparent that many political developments in South East Asia are coming on India’s way. Now retrospect the Hillary’s last India tour and remember her ambitions concerning India. Now the US wants to fish in the troubled water of SCS. Probably India will give the proxy for the US. And Vietnam will be the stronghold for the US in South East Asia which it assumes as much as good friend as England in Europe. On the question of SCS dispute the US is giving strong support to many SCS littoral states including Vietnam with both moral and materials. India’s approval of off-shore exploration for oil and gas in SCS by its state owned company, a clear defiance against China, was mainly propelled by the US. Now in the South East Asia and SCS region China has to face India first before the US.
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