A wave of change is flowing from Persian Gulf to North African plains swaying their imperial palaces; age old despotic rulers and even touching bunches of date! Since the popular movement in Tunisia against kleptocracy, wide ranges of people including experts-public speakers have been widening their flurry of speculations about this change. People are emerging with numerous questions - Is democracy replacing constitutional monarchy in Middle East? or is it US propelled change or self motivated? Will it de-legitimate Israel and revive Muslim solidarity on Palestine question? - and many more. But why do people care so much about Middle East? Modern international relations since 1917 (Balfour Declaration) has been Middle East centred. Global strategy to local dimension, changing from different point of views, is still intertwined with Middle East. Still it is a major remittance basket for many developing countries. That's why people around the world, irrespective of their religion, are so much involved with Middle East.
It always a tough job to write about Middle East because so versatile the people are there with their religion-belief system- culture and conflicts of interest that it requires special expertise. In this situation specificity helps anyone give an authentic impression on Middle East. To say in particular about the changes that are taking place is beyond the traditional Middle East; it includes greater Middle East where Maghreb states also involves. Tunisia is one of them and Algeria is another. So, it is obvious that the expansion of ongoing popular movement is great. But I shall specify my discussion following some questions. First of all one question arises, why did the revolution work as a domino-affect? Or why did it spread so fast and furious like wild-fire? Many say, lack of basic needs with worst youth unemployment situation made people furious against those regimes. It doesn't mean that before the year of 2011 these countries were "happy families" with abundant resources. But what is new is the abundance of youth forces. Demography has been a factor there. Swedish foreign minister termed it as demographic tsunami. Popular demand for change is spreading across the Middle East. Throughout the region a fault-line has opened up between young populations exposed to global modernizing forces through the internet and satellite television and oppressive regimes unable to provide opportunities or the reality of a better life. 65% of the population of the Middle East is under the age of 30 and are increasingly technology-savvy and adept at using new forms of communication to bypass state controls and mobilize around common issues or grievances. That's why no more it is Tulip, Velvet or Orange revolution but Twitter, Facebook or YouTube revolution that's how media is meddling (!) into the popular issues across the globe. No more flowers or colors are inspiring-incorporating mass population for proclaiming economic-political freedom but social media networks replacing those instruments.
Are these revolutions propelled by US? Against this question most people answered affirmatively. The invisible hand of US always works in people's mind more frequently than the reality; it's like something an imaginary witch. I can't say why. Personally, I think it's their psychic problem. I deem the US doesn't like such a great upheaval there. The present situation is beyond its control. When things do not happen in its (US) way then it goes in people's way. That's why US is now shouting for those people and for their freedom. Here I want to raise a question - does democratic Middle East help the US? No, it doesn't. Because those new governments can defy US dominance. They are not supposed to behave like puppet, which was done in the past. If democracy is in place then there will be a balance of power against US-Israel alliance. Still it is too early to say about democracy in Middle East. Anything may happen. Situations are still volatile there.
Many scholars on Middle East are comparing the present situation with Europe's 1980s, especially events happened till the fall of Berlin wall. While comparisons of events across time and place can be misleading the events of 1989 can provide some clues to the significance of current events. The political transformation of Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania were sweeping, dramatic and unexpected like present Tunisia, Egypt (Libya, Yemen, Bahrain probably) of greater Middle East or Arab world. They constituted a revolutionary situation that decisively overturned seemingly immovable regimes in a matter of months. Like 80s'Eastern Europe the present Arab world has many resemblances with political and economic systems (autocratic government and centralized economy). European people struggled to transform their worn and decayed states into democratic ones. Evolving into a new system of government and economy will not be an easy task for those Arab states. Their industry and economy may not be ready and well-equipped to cope with global open market competitions. It was not easy for those Eastern European states. On the other hand, Arab states may have to seek advice and assistance from western government to takeoff for a democratic system. Democratizing their institutions may require involvement of western governments, which in result will pave the way for western states to come closer and interfere again. Religion will be ever influential as it continues. So the upcoming days won't be easy for those new democracy rookies. Experience from 1980s Eastern Europe may come to their way to rebuild their own respective states.
It always a tough job to write about Middle East because so versatile the people are there with their religion-belief system- culture and conflicts of interest that it requires special expertise. In this situation specificity helps anyone give an authentic impression on Middle East. To say in particular about the changes that are taking place is beyond the traditional Middle East; it includes greater Middle East where Maghreb states also involves. Tunisia is one of them and Algeria is another. So, it is obvious that the expansion of ongoing popular movement is great. But I shall specify my discussion following some questions. First of all one question arises, why did the revolution work as a domino-affect? Or why did it spread so fast and furious like wild-fire? Many say, lack of basic needs with worst youth unemployment situation made people furious against those regimes. It doesn't mean that before the year of 2011 these countries were "happy families" with abundant resources. But what is new is the abundance of youth forces. Demography has been a factor there. Swedish foreign minister termed it as demographic tsunami. Popular demand for change is spreading across the Middle East. Throughout the region a fault-line has opened up between young populations exposed to global modernizing forces through the internet and satellite television and oppressive regimes unable to provide opportunities or the reality of a better life. 65% of the population of the Middle East is under the age of 30 and are increasingly technology-savvy and adept at using new forms of communication to bypass state controls and mobilize around common issues or grievances. That's why no more it is Tulip, Velvet or Orange revolution but Twitter, Facebook or YouTube revolution that's how media is meddling (!) into the popular issues across the globe. No more flowers or colors are inspiring-incorporating mass population for proclaiming economic-political freedom but social media networks replacing those instruments.
Are these revolutions propelled by US? Against this question most people answered affirmatively. The invisible hand of US always works in people's mind more frequently than the reality; it's like something an imaginary witch. I can't say why. Personally, I think it's their psychic problem. I deem the US doesn't like such a great upheaval there. The present situation is beyond its control. When things do not happen in its (US) way then it goes in people's way. That's why US is now shouting for those people and for their freedom. Here I want to raise a question - does democratic Middle East help the US? No, it doesn't. Because those new governments can defy US dominance. They are not supposed to behave like puppet, which was done in the past. If democracy is in place then there will be a balance of power against US-Israel alliance. Still it is too early to say about democracy in Middle East. Anything may happen. Situations are still volatile there.
Many scholars on Middle East are comparing the present situation with Europe's 1980s, especially events happened till the fall of Berlin wall. While comparisons of events across time and place can be misleading the events of 1989 can provide some clues to the significance of current events. The political transformation of Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania were sweeping, dramatic and unexpected like present Tunisia, Egypt (Libya, Yemen, Bahrain probably) of greater Middle East or Arab world. They constituted a revolutionary situation that decisively overturned seemingly immovable regimes in a matter of months. Like 80s'Eastern Europe the present Arab world has many resemblances with political and economic systems (autocratic government and centralized economy). European people struggled to transform their worn and decayed states into democratic ones. Evolving into a new system of government and economy will not be an easy task for those Arab states. Their industry and economy may not be ready and well-equipped to cope with global open market competitions. It was not easy for those Eastern European states. On the other hand, Arab states may have to seek advice and assistance from western government to takeoff for a democratic system. Democratizing their institutions may require involvement of western governments, which in result will pave the way for western states to come closer and interfere again. Religion will be ever influential as it continues. So the upcoming days won't be easy for those new democracy rookies. Experience from 1980s Eastern Europe may come to their way to rebuild their own respective states.
This article was appeared first in the Daily Star on 5th March 2011.
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