PAKISTAN’S MEMOGATE: AN ORCHESTRSTION?

Pakistan has become a country of endless climaxes because it seems that the twists and turns will never end there. Since the Abottabad incident political inconsistency in Pakistan has become a consistent phenomenon. Sometimes it seems to me that Pakistan is still haunted by the spectre of Osama bin Laden.  However, it does not mean that before Abottabad incident there had been a persistent peaceful political ambiance in Pakistan. The recent political crisis in Pakistan is evolving centering ‘memogate’ scandal. ‘Memogate’ is a secret memorandum which was allegedly delivered to Admiral Michael Mullen, then the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, requesting US intervention in the event of a military coup against Pakistan's elected government. The memo promised that Pakistan would allow the US input on a revamp of the country's national security set-up, and that it would eliminate Section S of the country's powerful Inter Services Intelligence agency, which allegedly is responsible for the ISI's links with the Taliban. After knowing this secret activity the army got furiated that finally resulted in involving Supreme Court which issued a notice over inaction in graft case of President Asif Ali Zardari, as government faces legal and political challenges. 

But the present situation is unprecedented because of several cogent reasons. The most important reason is the existing strained relationship with the US. The US killed Osama Bin Laden by violating Pakistan’s sovereignty. In last November US led Nato strike killed twenty four Pakistani troops in Northern Pakistan which finally resulted to halt Nato supply line to Afghanistan via Pakistan and forced the US to pull out from Shamasi airbase in Kharan, Pakistan. This year January President Obama signed a bill to stop aiding Pakistan as a measure of tit for tat. Another important reason is a better strong position of various democratic institutions like- media, Supreme Court and stronger opposition parties in today’s Pakistan. 

The ‘memogate’ scandal may bring a shuffle in Pakistan government. But here I shall not view the scandal to understand the national politics of Pakistan rather will dissect the issue to understand its implication with external dimensions. It may create a very tricky option for the US to make through into Pakistan politics and force Pakistan to come into terms. 

It is a very much historically proven truth that the civil-military relation in Pakistan is always at a draggers drawn. But in most of the cases the relationship was influenced or shaped by the external factors.  After the Pakistan troops casualties by Nato airstrikes taken places, the official relationship between Pakistan and the US touched a new bellow. But since then, both the government and military are maintaining a clandestine relationship, because respective organization’s existence depends upon Washington’s positive nod. An obedient and controlled Pakistan is also important for the US. To bring stability in Afghanistan and maintaining counterterrorism effort in South Asia and uprooting insurgency from this region, a stable Pakistan is precondition. The US cannot afford to let Pakistan run alone and even, independently. This may risk of making a mess of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons to insurgents. In an updated research, conducted by The Nuclear Threat Initiative, in a project led by former US Senator Sam Nunn and the Economist Intelligence Unit it is found that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are at most risk just after North Korea. A few days back I had the privilege speak with Mr. Ali Riaz, Professor and Chair of department of Political Science, Illinois State University. We had some wonderful sharing regarding the US role in the regional politics of South Asia. Then he told me that a stable Pakistan is important for both the US and India. If Pakistan fails as a state then certainly it will risk nuclear weapons falling in the hand of non-state actors like Al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Tayba or any other terrorist organizations.  Terrorists and insurgents from Pakistan will infiltrate into India and Bangladesh through the porous borders. 

‘Memogate’ scandal will finally bring one party, either the government or the armed force division, nearer to the US.  And then the US will utilize this weak point to enforce Pakistan to bow down to its demand.  From this point of view no one can deny the possibilities of orchestration from the US to drive the ‘memogate’ on its own side. 

An edited version of this article was published in the Daily Star on 21st January, 2012 

China Enters Indian Ocean

While China is confronting or trying to appease South China Sea (SCS) littoral states from claiming over resources there in, simultaneously, it’s maintaining global policy towards many different regions as prominently as it had been in the past. China has decided to build an overseas military base, first ever in its kind, in Indian Ocean.  The decision has double merits- one, this is a great shift from regional to global strategic reach and then the specialty of the location of base, which is in the Indian Ocean. According to Robert D Kaplan, Indian Ocean will be the centre of global conflicts, because most international business, supply will be conducted through this route. Most important of all, it is in the Indian Ocean that the interests and influence of India, China and the United States are beginning to overlap and intersect. It is here, as Kaplan says, that the 21st century’s “global power dynamics will be revealed.”  According to Kaplan two key players in this region are India and China. India is moving east and west while China to the South. Interestingly these, relatively new political players are making the Indo-Pacific into a heaven of “RealPolitik’. And lone Superpower the US is also on a process to shift its focus from the Middle East to this region.

China has already announced that it will set up its first military base abroad in the Indian Ocean island of Seychelles to "seek supplies and recuperate" facilities for its Navy. A recent report said that Chinese naval fleets have re-supply facilities at harbors in Djibouti, Oman and Yemen since China sent its first convoy to the Gulf of Aden in 2008. China has already cemented its foothold in the Indian Ocean by signing contract with the UN backed International Seabed Authority to gain rights to explore polymetallic sulphide ore deposit in Indian Ocean over the next 15 years.

The location of Seychelles is far away from China and near to Indian Andaman Nicobar islands and located to the north east of African's Madagascar. The number of islands in the archipelago is more than hundred and fifteen. India's former intelligence chief, Vikram Sood said that he had been surprised by the Seychelles, traditionally close to India, that it had offered naval facilities to China. Beijing is considering the offer as an opportunity to establish a port to supply its anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden. Surely this base will ensure China's maritime commerce while at the same time, will serve to set off against India's presence in Indian Ocean.

Now let us have some glimpses upon the backdrops of this recent move by China. After the face to face situation with the SCS littoral states which was almost going to outburst into a war, with the involvement of the US, China, finally, discovered its lack of advancement in naval power. Within a few days of edgy situation between China and many other SCS littoral states, claiming over the resources of spritely islands, China floated off it’s first ever and only air craft carries in the SCS. China started to feel the importance of naval power in a very awkward situation. Within a very short time, Indian state owned company ONGC Vindesh declared that it would continue to explore SCS for Vietnam despite China’s dissent. And after the very next month of this incident, US president Barak Obama made a visit to Australia and declared that it would build a marine base in Northern Australia in the region of Asia pacific. So, China, very much reasonably, started to feel a kind of encirclement by some traditional enemies. In consequence, China has been trying to counter balance both India and the US by widening its strategic reach.

While commenting on China’s Seychelles base, Mr. Raman, Director, Institute For Topical Studies from India had arguments of different frame of mind. According to him, Chinese naval ships on long-range anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden area do need ports of call for re-stocking, re-fuelling and rest and recreation facilities. Initially, they were using the Karachi port. They have stopped doing so for some months now due to the poor security situation in Karachi, which was highlighted by a terrorist attack on the Pakistani naval air base in May last. Thus China is optioning the Seychelles. But I think, the Seychelles cannot be replacement for Karachi, Pakistan or Hambantota, Sri Lanka. The Seychelles’s geographical location is totally different. Moreover, there is a qualitative difference between China’s other port and base in the Seychelles. In the Seychelles, it will be military base. So it cannot be merely a port of call for re-stocking, re-fuelling and rest and recreation facilities. We can’t deny its strategic importance.

An edited version of this article was published in the Daily Star on 7th January, 2012